Alexander Lukashenko

Since 2020, authorities have used criminal prosecutions, NGO liquidations, 'extremist' lists and media restrictions to neutralise much of the opposition and civil society. Ales Bialiatski and other human rights defenders were imprisoned. UN experts recorded over 1,200 political prisoners in early 2025; substantial subsequent releases reduced the figure, but new arrests continued and Viasna still counted 888 according to Reuters in September 2026.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

high_systemic_responsibility — head of a highly centralised regime; individual judicial decisions taken by competent courts and services

At the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces used Belarusian territory, bases, infrastructure and airspace to attack Ukraine. The European Union considers Lukashenko's regime complicit in the aggression and expanded its sanctions. Minsk's political, territorial and logistical support continued throughout the war.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct_political — Lukashenko acknowledges the alliance and Russian access to the territory; Russian military operations remain attributed to Russian forces

A September 2023 decree removed Belarusian diplomatic missions' ability to renew or issue several essential documents for citizens living abroad. UN experts warned that the measure could affect hundreds of thousands of exiles and push some to return to a country where they risk arrest or prosecution. Trials in absentia and measures against opponents abroad increased this transnational pressure.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct — presidential decree signed by Lukashenko

After 2020, authorities intensified prosecutions of independent trade unions; several organisations were dissolved and leaders convicted. In response to persistent non-compliance with recommendations on freedom of association, the International Labour Organization activated measures under Article 33 of its Constitution in 2023, an exceptional procedure, and continued its monitoring.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

high_systemic_responsibility — directly competent judicial and executive authorities; head of a highly centralised system

As part of a rapprochement with Washington, Minsk releases several waves of detainees. On 19 March 2026, Lukashenko releases 250 people — the largest wave at that date — while the United States eases certain sanctions. In September 2026, Ales Bialiatski estimates that 700 to 800 people have been released through this diplomacy but states that arrests continue and that 888 political prisoners remain detained according to Viasna.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct_political — Lukashenko orders or approves pardons/releases; he disputes the political status of the detainees

In September 2024, Lithuania refers to the International Criminal Court alleged crimes against humanity committed partly on its territory against Belarusians forced into exile. On 12 March 2026, the Office of the Prosecutor announces that there is a reasonable basis to open an investigation and formally opens an investigation into the situation, notably concerning allegations of deportation or forcible transfer and persecution.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

situation-level — Lukashenko is the head of the state concerned, but the public investigation does not amount to an individual accusation, arrest warrant or personal conviction

The UN Committee against Torture concluded that torture was practised systematically in Belarus, with particularly high frequency following the August 2020 election. UN mechanisms documented beatings, sexual violence, arbitrary detention, inhuman treatment and the absence of effective investigations. In 2025, a group of experts considered that certain violations were sufficiently widespread and systematic to potentially constitute crimes against humanity.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

high_systemic_and_political_command_responsibility — no individual criminal conviction in the proceedings considered

Ukrainian children, notably from Russian-occupied territories, were taken to camps and institutions in Belarus. Minsk presented these stays as humanitarian, medical or recreational, while the European Union and other institutions described Belarusian participation in the Russian system of unlawful transfers and re-education and sanctioned officials and organisations involved. Lukashenko publicly defended hosting these children.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

high_political_responsibility — public support for the programmes; no personal ICC warrant identified in this case as at 12 September 2026

Lukashenko officially secured a seventh term in the presidential election of 26 January 2025. The ODIHR did not deploy a mission because no invitation was received in sufficient time. UN experts described an election without genuine competition in an environment characterised by the exclusion of the opposition, closure of independent media and more than 1,200 political prisoners at the beginning of 2025.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct_and_institutional — incumbent candidate and principal beneficiary of the election

A series of reforms extended the death penalty to certain preparations or attempted terrorist acts and subsequently to cases of high treason, introduced trials in absentia used against exiled opponents and allowed deprivation of citizenship in certain circumstances. OSCE and UN mechanisms also denounced the use of extremism and terrorism classifications against peaceful dissent.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

high_political_and_legislative_responsibility — head of state in a centralised system who promulgated these reforms

In 2023, Moscow and Minsk arranged the stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Lukashenko publicly defended the decision as a response to Western threats. NATO and the European Union regarded it as an escalation and further deepening of Minsk's strategic dependence on Moscow.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct_political — personally acknowledged decision to host the deployment; control of weapons declared to remain Russian

On 23 May 2021, Ryanair flight FR4978 from Athens to Vilnius was forced to land in Minsk following a bomb alert that proved false. Opposition figure Raman Pratasevich and Sofia Sapega were arrested after landing. ICAO concluded that the false threat had been deliberately communicated, that senior Belarusian government officials had knowingly participated in the operation and that Belarus's actions constituted a flagrant and serious violation of the Chicago Convention.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

high_institutional — ICAO: senior government officials involved; public conclusion does not personally name Lukashenko as the person who gave the order

From summer 2021, the European Union accused the Belarusian regime of facilitating the arrival of third-country nationals and subsequently transporting them towards the Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian borders to exert political pressure. The EU Council described orchestrated instrumentalisation involving security forces and transport and tourism operators, before adopting sanctions.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

high_political_responsibility — EU attributes orchestration to the regime; operational acts to the forces and entities involved

The constitutional revision approved in February 2022 substantially strengthened the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, introduced protections for former presidents and theoretically reinstated a two-term limit, but with a new count applicable after the text's entry into force. The OSCE and Venice Commission considered that this structure did not restore effective checks on power and could allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct — reform promoted by the presidential system and enabling further continuity in power

At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, Lukashenko described global concern as 'psychosis', refused strict lockdowns and publicly suggested, sometimes jokingly, vodka, saunas, agricultural work and hockey as ways of resisting the virus. In July 2020, he announced that he had himself contracted Covid-19 asymptomatically and recovered.

State of the evidence

Documented

Legal status — source text

Not applicable

Attribution

direct — personal statements and public policy decisions

The presidential election of 9 August 2020, officially won by Lukashenko, was rejected by the opposition led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The OSCE Moscow Mechanism reported credible evidence of electoral irregularities and serious human rights violations. Mass demonstrations were followed by thousands of arrests, excessive use of force, prosecutions of journalists and activists, and the exile of opposition figures.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

very_high_political_responsibility — direct beneficiary of the official result and head of the state apparatus; physical acts of violence attributed to the services concerned

In March 2012, responding to German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, who was openly gay and critical of the Belarusian regime, Lukashenko declared that it was 'better to be a dictator than gay'. The statement drew condemnation from the German government and formed part of a series of public remarks hostile to gay people.

State of the evidence

Documented

Legal status — source text

Not applicable

Attribution

direct — personal statement

Dzmitry Kanavalau and Uladzslau Kavalyou were sentenced to death for the 2011 Minsk metro bombing, which killed 15 people and injured over 300. International organisations denounced the lack of adequate fair trial guarantees. The UN Human Rights Committee had requested a stay of Kavalyou's execution while examining his complaint. Lukashenko refused to pardon them on 14 March 2012, and both men were executed shortly afterwards.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct_on_clemency — Lukashenko personally refused clemency; findings of guilt and sentences were the responsibility of the Supreme Court

Person targeted by the proceedings

les auteurs condamnes de l'attentat du metro de Minsk

Role of the person profiled

Protagonist not prosecuted

Following the presidential election of 19 December 2010, a demonstration in Minsk was violently dispersed. More than 600 people were reportedly detained, and seven of the ten presidential candidates were arrested or detained. The OSCE/ODIHR considered that Belarus remained far from meeting its democratic commitments, while the UN documented the repression and prosecutions.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

high_political_responsibility — head of state and candidate; arrests carried out by security services

In October 2007, Lukashenko told Russian journalists that Bobruysk's formerly poor condition was attributable to its historically Jewish population and made a negative generalisation about how Jews treated places where they lived. The remarks were widely condemned as antisemitic and prompted demands for retraction and apology.

State of the evidence

Documented

Legal status — source text

Not applicable

Attribution

direct — publicly reported personal remarks

During the March 2006 presidential election, the OSCE/ODIHR described a framework granting the President extremely broad powers, the use of administrative resources in favour of the incumbent, severe restrictions on opposition campaigning and a process failing to meet OSCE democratic commitments. Candidate Alyaksandr Kazulin was notably violently arrested and post-election demonstrations were dispersed.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

direct_and_institutional — incumbent president and main beneficiary; operational violence attributed to security forces

The referendum of 17 October 2004 abolished the two-term presidential limit, allowing Lukashenko to stand again. The Venice Commission considered that this development worsened the democratic deficit and formed part of the concentration of power underway since 1996.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct — constitutional reform enabling his subsequent candidacies

Yuri Zakharenko, Viktor Gonchar, Anatoly Krasovsky and journalist Dmitry Zavadsky disappeared between 1999 and 2000. In the Zakharenko case, the UN Human Rights Committee found violations attributable to the Belarusian state, notably the lack of an effective investigation. Credible allegations subsequently implicated senior security officials and the existence of a group tasked with eliminating opponents.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

high_regime_responsibility — head of state during the disappearances; no qualified finding here proves that he personally gave the orders

In 1998, Belarusian authorities imposed works at the Drozdy diplomatic compound, cut off services and blocked road access to ambassadors' residences. The United States described these actions as a violation of the Vienna Convention and recalled its ambassador; several European countries did likewise. The European Union adopted a restrictive common position in response.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

high_institutional — government measures under presidential authority; no personal criminal proceedings

The November 1996 constitutional referendum greatly expanded presidential powers, extended Lukashenko's first term until 2001 and replaced the Supreme Soviet with a new Parliament. The Constitutional Court had considered that the constitutional questions could only be consultative, but the amendments were implemented as binding. The Venice Commission and OSCE subsequently described an excessive concentration of executive power.

State of the evidence

Established

Attribution

direct — principal promoter and institutional beneficiary of the reform

In April 1995, after Parliament rejected several questions proposed by the President, nineteen MPs opposed to the referendum began a hunger strike inside Parliament. During the night of 11 to 12 April, security forces forcibly removed and beat them. The 14 May referendum addressed, among other matters, the status of Russian, state symbols, integration with Russia and presidential power to dissolve Parliament; all four questions were officially approved. International observers found the simultaneous parliamentary elections neither free nor fair.

State of the evidence

Documented

Attribution

direct_political_and_institutional — Lukashenko promoted the referendum; physical violence attributed to security forces, without a personal judicial finding establishing that he ordered it

In an interview and subsequent statements in November 1995, Lukashenko cited Hitler's Germany as an example of state consolidation and claimed that 'not everything connected with Hitler was bad', linking the idea to his conception of a strong presidency. He initially refused to withdraw the remarks and distinguished the domestic order he said he admired from the disastrous consequences of Hitler's foreign policy.

State of the evidence

Documented

Legal status — source text

Not applicable

Attribution

direct — publicly reported personal statements